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|Friday, June 07, 2013|
BY BRANDON SAWYER | OB RESEARCH EDITOR
Unemployment is down but so is the labor force as discouraged workers desert, baby boomers retire and the economy sputters along. Has Portlandia's "Dream of the '90s" evaporated?
Last month, a geographer from Pittsburgh wrote a brief article for Pacific Standard with the subtle title,"Portland Is Dying." A few members of the "Portland is anti-business" crowd were happy to oblige his celebration of Portland's demise with knowing comments, but it also drew criticism from Rose City defenders.
The basis of his argument was that Portland's labor force – an estimate of both employed and unemployed folks – had shrunk by nearly 25,000 in the year ending March 2013. This does not necessarily signal a loss of jobs; it could also be attributed to a loss of unemployed job seekers.
Looking further into the data, more recent April numbers from the Oregon Employment Department show Portland Metro's labor force down about 21,000 people, or -1.7% between April 2012 and April 2013. In Seattle-Tacoma the labor force grew by nearly 24,000 or +1.3% during the same period. Oregon-wide it fell more than 38,000, or -1.9% while it remained flat in Washington, and grew half a percent nationally.
Portland is currently the 23rd largest metro by size of labor force, and among the top 25 metros only Portland and St. Louis lost labor force during the year ended in April. Twelve of them, including Seattle, increased their labor force more than a one percent, with Houston leading the pack at +2.5% or 74,000. Most likely, the gains being made by metros these days are through employment, since unemployment rates are falling across most of the nation. Portland's unemployment rate is also down, but lately this is because unemployment is falling faster than employment. Portland was one of the six top 25 metros that lost labor force in 2012, too, though it only fell by a tenth of a percent.
Oregon, meanwhile, had the second biggest labor force dip, after Connecticut at -2.0%, for the year ended in April among 15 states that saw declines. Only eight states had increases greater than one percent, led by Utah at +2.7% and North Dakota at +2.6%.
State employment economist Nick Beleiciks says three factors are hampering growth in labor force, both in Oregon and other parts of the country:
Beleiciks also noted that Oregon's labor force participation rate – labor force participants divided by all who could conceivably be working – reached its lowest point in April, 61.9%, since state economists began recording it in the late '70s. The national rate has also taken a dramatic plunge in the last five years and was at 63.3% in April. Last year a blog on The Washington Post decried the falling rate and its potential to shrink the labor force..
It's worth noting that the labor force is figured using the Current Population Survey (CPS) of households, which of course also measures employment. It showed employment in Portland Metro down almost 6,500 jobs in the year ended in April. But a better measure of employment, according to Beleiciks is found in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey or employers, which shows Portland Metro gained 21,800 jobs in that time.
Perhaps young people really do come to Portland to retire, abandoning the labor force or maybe the "jobless recovery" is just hitting harder here. Whether city and state declines are part of an ongoing trend, or jsut a hiccup along the path, remains to be seen.
Research editor Brandon Sawyer digs heaps of data about privately-held and public companies, economics and industries, and extracts relevant articles, graphs and lists, including the 100 Best Companies, Nonprofits and Green Companies to Work For in Oregon.
Thursday, June 19, 2014
BY MONICA ENAND | GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
Nine tips for building habits among employees to respond when needed.
Friday, July 18, 2014
BY JASON NORRIS | OB GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
Back in May, we shared a common Wall Street quote about investing, “Sell in May and go away.” Fast forward to July and the most common question we have been getting from clients is, “When is the market pullback going to occur?”
Thursday, June 26, 2014
BY ERIC FRUTS | OB BLOGGER
Last year, the housing market in Oregon—and the U.S. as a whole—was blasting off. The Case-Shiller index of home prices ended the year 13% higher than at the beginning of the year. But, was last year a blip, or a trend?
Monday, June 16, 2014
The Oregon economy could get a boost from a new trade agreement being negotiated between the U.S. and the European Union.
Friday, June 06, 2014
BY KATIE AUSBURGER | OB GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
How to build a hipster-friendly work environment.
Thursday, June 12, 2014
BY ANDREA DURBIN | OB GUEST BLOGGER
Last week, the Obama administration took an important and welcomed step in the effort to protect the health and well-being of all Oregonians by limiting carbon pollution from existing power plants.
Thursday, June 05, 2014
BY HANNAH WALLACE | OB BLOGGER
What does it take to launch and run one of these mobile food businesses?
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Lane Powell Shareholder Susan K. Eggum has been elected as vice chair of programs and projects for the International Association of Defense Counsel’s (IADC’s) Employment Law Committee.
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