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|Friday, June 07, 2013|
BY BRANDON SAWYER | OB RESEARCH EDITOR
Unemployment is down but so is the labor force as discouraged workers desert, baby boomers retire and the economy sputters along. Has Portlandia's "Dream of the '90s" evaporated?
Last month, a geographer from Pittsburgh wrote a brief article for Pacific Standard with the subtle title,"Portland Is Dying." A few members of the "Portland is anti-business" crowd were happy to oblige his celebration of Portland's demise with knowing comments, but it also drew criticism from Rose City defenders.
The basis of his argument was that Portland's labor force – an estimate of both employed and unemployed folks – had shrunk by nearly 25,000 in the year ending March 2013. This does not necessarily signal a loss of jobs; it could also be attributed to a loss of unemployed job seekers.
Looking further into the data, more recent April numbers from the Oregon Employment Department show Portland Metro's labor force down about 21,000 people, or -1.7% between April 2012 and April 2013. In Seattle-Tacoma the labor force grew by nearly 24,000 or +1.3% during the same period. Oregon-wide it fell more than 38,000, or -1.9% while it remained flat in Washington, and grew half a percent nationally.
Portland is currently the 23rd largest metro by size of labor force, and among the top 25 metros only Portland and St. Louis lost labor force during the year ended in April. Twelve of them, including Seattle, increased their labor force more than a one percent, with Houston leading the pack at +2.5% or 74,000. Most likely, the gains being made by metros these days are through employment, since unemployment rates are falling across most of the nation. Portland's unemployment rate is also down, but lately this is because unemployment is falling faster than employment. Portland was one of the six top 25 metros that lost labor force in 2012, too, though it only fell by a tenth of a percent.
Oregon, meanwhile, had the second biggest labor force dip, after Connecticut at -2.0%, for the year ended in April among 15 states that saw declines. Only eight states had increases greater than one percent, led by Utah at +2.7% and North Dakota at +2.6%.
State employment economist Nick Beleiciks says three factors are hampering growth in labor force, both in Oregon and other parts of the country:
Beleiciks also noted that Oregon's labor force participation rate – labor force participants divided by all who could conceivably be working – reached its lowest point in April, 61.9%, since state economists began recording it in the late '70s. The national rate has also taken a dramatic plunge in the last five years and was at 63.3% in April. Last year a blog on The Washington Post decried the falling rate and its potential to shrink the labor force..
It's worth noting that the labor force is figured using the Current Population Survey (CPS) of households, which of course also measures employment. It showed employment in Portland Metro down almost 6,500 jobs in the year ended in April. But a better measure of employment, according to Beleiciks is found in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey or employers, which shows Portland Metro gained 21,800 jobs in that time.
Perhaps young people really do come to Portland to retire, abandoning the labor force or maybe the "jobless recovery" is just hitting harder here. Whether city and state declines are part of an ongoing trend, or jsut a hiccup along the path, remains to be seen.
Research editor Brandon Sawyer digs heaps of data about privately-held and public companies, economics and industries, and extracts relevant articles, graphs and lists, including the 100 Best Companies, Nonprofits and Green Companies to Work For in Oregon.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
BY JON BELL
Oregon tribes still bet on casinos.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
BY JASON NORRIS
Historically, when the leaves fall, so do the markets. This year, earnings, Europe, energy and Ebola have in common? Beyond alliteration, they are four factors that the investors are pointing to for this year’s seasonal volatility.
Thursday, December 11, 2014
BY JESSICA RIDGWAY
Lawger upends the typical hourly based fee model by letting clients determine the cost.
Monday, November 10, 2014
BY KIM MOORE | OB RESEARCH EDITOR
A market for low-carbon transportation fuels has a chance to flourish in Oregon if regulators adopt the second phase of the state’s Clean Fuels Program.
Saturday, December 13, 2014
The president of LaPorte & Associates lets us in on his day-to-day life.
Friday, December 12, 2014
BY LINDA BAKER
A conversation with Oregon state economist Josh Lehner.
Saturday, December 13, 2014
Checking in with the managing director of Arnerich Massena.
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