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|Friday, May 02, 2014|
BY ERIC FRUITS | OB BLOGGER
Oregon’s March job growth was the strongest in nearly a decade. The state Employment Department reports that employers added about 7,500 jobs statewide last month, which was the biggest monthly gain since November 2005. The improving economy looks to be luring people back into the labor force, with more than 7,000 added to the labor force.
The recent good news, however, belies deeper long run troubles in Oregon employment and incomes.
The sketch comedy show Portlandia gave the city a reputation as the place where young people come to retire. The figure below shows that there may be a grain of truth in that assessment.
Until the mid 1990s, Oregon had a go-getter workforce. Labor force participation was about 2 percentage points higher than the U.S. average. Our above average unemployment rate was as much because of people wanting to work as it was because of people who couldn’t get work.
Around 1994—coinciding with the spotted owl controversy and the Northwest Forest Plan—labor force participation began to drop. The 2001 recession hit the Oregon economy hardest about a year-and-a-half after the recession elsewhere in the U.S. In some sense, the state never truly recovered from that recession. Oregon’s labor force participation dropped sharply and ended up lower than labor force participation in the U.S. as a whole.
The most recent information from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that labor force participation in Oregon is now 2 percentage points lower than the U.S. average. If the state’s rate was the same as the U.S. average, Oregon would have 61,500 more people in the labor force—that’s more than the entire population of the City of Springfield.
Oregon’s declining labor force is working its way into declining incomes.
The figure above shows personal income per person in Oregon compared with the U.S. as a whole. Manufacturing activity associated with World War II boosted Oregon incomes. Just after the war, the average Oregonian was 10 percent better off than the average American. Incomes stabilized in the 1960s and 1970s, when Oregon was only slightly better off than elsewhere in the U.S.
The 1980-81 recession hit Oregon incomes especially hard, while the tech boom of the 1990s helped turn back some of the losses of the 1980s.
Oregon incomes burst with the dot-com bubble, and never recovered. The most recent information from the Census Bureau shows that personal income in Oregon is now 10 percent lower than the U.S. average. That’s about $360 a month.
While it’s tough to tell from eyeballing the graphs, and without saying anything about causation, there is a clear relationship between labor force participation and personal income. Improvements in labor force participation are associated with improvements in personal income and vice-versa. In this column, we have remarked on the relationship between income inequality and employment in which states with weak employment growth saw the steepest increases in income inequality.
Something has happened to Oregon over the past decade to cause steep declines in incomes and willingness to work. Part of it is surely due to the state’s high personal income tax rate that diminishes incentives to work. Another part of it is likely due to the state’s challenging business climate that diminishes incentives to hire employees. And yet another part may be due to state and local governments’ fixation on catering to the “creative class” at the expense of bread-and-butter workers and the firms that hire them.
Eric Fruits, Ph.D. is president and chief economist at Economics International Corp., a Portland-based consulting firm. He is an adjunct professor at Portland State University where he has taught classes in economics, finance, and state and local public finance. Any opinions are the author’s alone and do not reflect the opinions of any other person or organization.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
BY JOE ROJAS-BURKE
The black soldier fly’s larvae are among the most ravenous and least picky eaters on earth.
Friday, October 24, 2014
A majority of respondents agreed: Local vineyards should remain Oregon-owned and quality is the most important factor when determining where to eat or buy groceries.
Thursday, October 02, 2014
Oregon Business magazine has named the sixth annual 100 Best Nonprofits to Work for in Oregon.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Peter Lizotte at ACME Business Solutions and Roger Busse at Pacific Continental Bank share their favorite reads.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
BY JOE ROJAS-BURKE & KIM MOORE
Oregon Business reports on the visa squeeze, the skills gap and foreign-born residents who are revitalizing rural Oregon.
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
BY JONATHAN FROCHTZWAJG
A flare-up in the Elliott Forest raises questions about détente in Oregon’s timber wars.
Friday, November 14, 2014
BY JESSICA RIDGWAY
Oregon entrepreneurs reveal their favorite caffeine hangouts.
|A Complex Portrait: Immigration, Jobs and the Economy|
|Woman of Steel|
|Kill the Meeting|
Is your business ready to join us in the call for action? This opening panel includes Oregon businesses who will discuss why they signed the Oregon Climate Declaration, the investments they are making to reduce carbon emissions, and how their actions are affecting their companies.
Get ready for two days of special events produced with the EPA, Portland Timbers and ISOS before and after the GoGreen Conference on October 16.
Plenty of employers seem “dazed and confused” after the recent vote to legalize marijuana. In light of Measure 91 passing, what are some issues for private-sector Oregon employers to consider?
Rotary’s Oregon Ethics in Business aims to raise consciousness about business ethics by honoring exceptional companies.
Barran Liebman’s annual employment law seminar is an industry classic.
Is my drug-free workplace policy up in smoke?
More than 400 "Change Makers" will gather to invest in a socially sustainable community.