|| Print ||
|Thursday, February 13, 2014|
BY JASON NORRIS | GUEST CONTRIBUTOR
The results of Super Bowl XLVIII are now in the books, and historically the games have had an impact on investors’ portfolio for that calendar year. While I was pulling for the Seahawks and was pleased with the results, their win may also be beneficial for equity markets. Although correlation does not lead to causation, historically, if a team from the NFC wins the big game, the S&P 500 is positive 80% of the time. Now that the Seahawks have made the move to the NFC, this win “may” portend a positive gain for equities.
While strictly following seasonal and/or cyclical indicators is not advised, we do pay attention to them. With the S&P 500 down more than three percent for the year, there is another historical indicator that some investors follow. The returns in January usually predict what the returns will be for the entire year. Since 1950, this “January Barometer” has a batting average of 80%. While not perfect, it is an interesting factoid. Therefore, we are hopeful that the Seahawks win will offset this calendar trend.
As an aside, the Seahawks have been a great investment for owner and former Microsoft co-founder, Paul Allen. He bought the team in 1997 out of “civic duty,” and since then it has increased in value six-fold, while his Microsoft stake has “merely” doubled.
Down a Hole
Global equity markets began the year much like the Broncos started the Super Bowl: in the hole. Investors continue to be disheartened with emerging markets events as well as with the Federal Reserve’s taper policy. Currency devaluations and higher interest rates are resulting in a “risk-off” trade for global investors. This sell-off has not been limited to just emerging markets. As we have seen here in the U.S., global developed markets felt the effects as well. The global markets (as measured by the MSCI All-World Index) are down five percent for the month of January. These risk-off trades have resulted in developed market interest rates declining meaningfully. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield started 2014 at three percent and is now trading at 2.65 percent. Yields in Germany and the UK have dropped by similar levels.
We believe that the Fed’s taper policy is having more of a psychological effect than an actual impact. If you look at the Fed’s balance sheet, the “tapering” that is occurring is still resulting in money going into the economy. Rather than buying $80 billion in Treasuries and mortgage bonds, they are now purchasing $65 billion and will be reducing that over the course of the year. Their balance sheet is, in fact, still growing. We do not believe the Fed will liquidate any of their holdings. Instead, they will let bonds mature over time and therefore we see no immediate tightening of money in the economy.
Jobs Heading in the Right Direction
The employment picture continues to improve slowly with the most recent report of 142,000 private jobs created in the month of January. This brings the total private sector jobs just under its 2007 peak of 116 million. We anticipate that we will start seeing a pick-up in the public sector in 2014 due to a pick-up in state and local hiring. Tax receipts across the nation for local governments are close to record highs and have been growing at a solid 3 to 5 percent the last four years.
Portland is experiencing this positive growth as well and is just shy of recouping all the jobs lost in the recession that started in 2008.
While the sell-off year to date is disappointing, we are still constructive on equities, especially developed market equities. The recent volatility in equities has resulted in a record amount of selling in equity mutual funds for the week ending February 7. $28.3 billion was pulled out of equity funds and ETFs and the majority of that cash moved to the proverbial mattress. Earnings for U.S. companies have been relatively healthy with over 70% of companies having reported surpassing expectations. While we have seen some uncertainty in some parts of the earnings reports, specifically enterprise technology, we still like the overall market.
Therefore, unlike the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, we believe the lead that the market “bulls” have given the “bears” is far from insurmountable and that by year-end, equity bulls will prevail by posting a total return that is historically consistent with an “average” year of approximately 10 to 12 percent.
Jason Norris, CFA, is executive vice president of research at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management. Ferguson Wellman analysts blog on the financial markets for Oregon Business.
Opinions and statements of financial market trends based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Due to the rapidly changing nature of the financial markets, all information, views, opinions and estimates may quickly become outdated and are subject to change or correction. We believe the information provided is from reliable sources but should not be assumed accurate or complete.
Reference to or by non-employee individuals and institutions herein does not serve as an endorsement of, or testimonial for, Ferguson Wellman’s investment strategies and services. The information published herein is provided for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to sell or to buy securities, investment products or investment advisory services. Nothing contained herein constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice. The appropriateness of an investment or strategy may not be suitable for all investors and will depend on an investor’s circumstances and objectives.
Tuesday, February 04, 2014
BY MARK BLAINE | OB BLOGGER
Even after years of video experimentation on the web, media companies still struggle with what it should be, how it should be done, how much we should spend on it and how much readers/users/viewers really want it.
Thursday, January 23, 2014
BY BRANDON SAWYER
In this age of jobless recovery, workers have increasingly turned to part-time work in lieu of a full-time job, often cobbling together two or more jobs in order to make ends meet.
Thursday, March 06, 2014
BY HANNAH WALLACE | OB BLOGGER
The founder of Pacific Foods talks about why his company has flown under the radar in Oregon, how saving a family-run chicken hatchery has helped his bottom line and why he thinks organic food is anything but elitist.
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
BY JON BELL
Developers chase the rental market and change the face of Portland neighborhoods.
Thursday, February 20, 2014
BY VIVIAN MCINERNY | OB BLOGGER
As retailers consolidate and newspapers fold, the business of modeling shifts to ad agencies, apparel companies and new media.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
BY VIVIAN MCINERNY | OB BLOGGER
For Oregon’s comic biz, 2014 is already proving to be a real page-turner.
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
BY PETER BARNES
The defense market can be easy to overlook in Oregon, a place with a bigger reputation for its antiwar movements than for its military history. Yet when it comes to the U.S. defense budget, the Department of Defense did roughly $1 billion in business in Oregon that year.
|The more they change, the more they stay the same|
|The 2014 List: The Top 33 Large Companies to Work, For in Oregon|
|The 2014 List: The Top 34 Medium Companies to Work, For in Oregon|
|The 2014 List: The Top 33 Small Companies to Work, For in Oregon|
|The future of money|
Living in the beautiful Pacific Northwest means enjoying our wonderful surroundings, while remaining aware of the multiple types of natural disaster threats that we face: winter storms, windstorms, floods, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis.“
Oregon State University's hospitality degree program invests in next-generation leaders.
Allowing individuals to access their own healthcare options has created more difficulty instead of making things easier. There are so many examples that illustrate why agents are more important than ever in helping businesses and individuals determine the healthcare coverage that best fits their need.
Barran Liebman is pleased to welcome Tyler Volm and Damien Munsinger as Associate Attorneys. Both Tyler and Damien represent employers and management in employment law litigation, and provide advice on a full range of employment law matters.
The 2014 World Trademark Review 1000 (“WTR”) recently named Lane Powell as one of the top trademark law firms in Oregon and Washington, and Lane Powell attorneys Kenneth R. Davis II, Parna A. Mehrbani, Frances M. Jagla and Paul D. Swanson as top individuals in the practice.
Capital Pacific Bank, a Portland-based community bank serving businesses, professionals and nonprofit organizations, today announced that it has earned recognition as a Certified B Corporation by B Lab, a nonprofit organization dedicated to building a community of socially responsible businesses. The bank is one of six financial institutions across the country to achieve B Corp status.