|| Print ||
|Thursday, February 10, 2011|
By Bill Conerly
I have updated my economic forecast, and it looks a little better than it did a few months ago. I have upgraded the first three quarters of 2011. The later quarters have about the same growth rates as before--they were already fairly good growth rates back in my November 2010 forecast.
The reason for the forecast revision is that recent data show the processes I had anticipated occuring faster than I had previoiusly thought they would.
The keys to my vision of the economic outlook are:
Sound rosy to you? Here's another way of looking at it. I compare my forecast GDP with the Congressional Budget Office's estimate of potential GDP. Look at how long the gap persists.
Because of that persistent underachievement, I don't think inflation will rise significantly in the next few years. The rise of oil and food prices are changes in relative prices, which will not translate into permanent changes in the overall inflation rate.
In this context, the Fed will keep short-term interest rates low. However, global economic improvement will increase the demand for credit, pulling long-term interest rates higher.
|A Taste of Heaven|
|A Good Leap Forward|
|Fast Food Slows Down|
|Startup or Grow Up?|
|Tight and Loose|
|General Mills expects to save $100M|
|Sony predicts $2.14B loss|
|United Airlines offers $100K buyouts to flight attendants|
|Microsoft acquires popular game 'Minecraft'|
|Cognizant to buy TriZetto|
|Apple hits new record with iPhone 6 preorders|
|U.S. retail sales driven by car, health purchases|
Is your business ready to join us in the call for action? This opening panel includes Oregon businesses who will discuss why they signed the Oregon Climate Declaration, the investments they are making to reduce carbon emissions, and how their actions are affecting their companies.
Get ready for two days of special events produced with the EPA, Portland Timbers and ISOS before and after the GoGreen Conference on October 16.
First Call Resolution targets employee well-being and client satisfaction.
How six leading foundations are working together for a better Oregon.
Vigilant enters a New Year with a new president.
Sussman Shank is proud to announce that eight attorneys have been selected by their peers for inclusion in the 2015 edition of Best Lawyers in America, the oldest and most respected peer-review publication in the legal profession.
Lane Powell Shareholder William T. Patton has been appointed to the board of directors for Cascade AIDS Project, an organization that provides educational services and outreach to thousands of Oregonians living with HIV/AIDS.