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|Thursday, February 10, 2011|
By Bill Conerly
I have updated my economic forecast, and it looks a little better than it did a few months ago. I have upgraded the first three quarters of 2011. The later quarters have about the same growth rates as before--they were already fairly good growth rates back in my November 2010 forecast.
The reason for the forecast revision is that recent data show the processes I had anticipated occuring faster than I had previoiusly thought they would.
The keys to my vision of the economic outlook are:
Sound rosy to you? Here's another way of looking at it. I compare my forecast GDP with the Congressional Budget Office's estimate of potential GDP. Look at how long the gap persists.
Because of that persistent underachievement, I don't think inflation will rise significantly in the next few years. The rise of oil and food prices are changes in relative prices, which will not translate into permanent changes in the overall inflation rate.
In this context, the Fed will keep short-term interest rates low. However, global economic improvement will increase the demand for credit, pulling long-term interest rates higher.
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Is your business ready to join us in the call for action? This opening panel includes Oregon businesses who will discuss why they signed the Oregon Climate Declaration, the investments they are making to reduce carbon emissions, and how their actions are affecting their companies.
Get ready for two days of special events produced with the EPA, Portland Timbers and ISOS before and after the GoGreen Conference on October 16.
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Through its support of the arts, the Cultural Trust is strengthening the business community.
The official launch will be Jan. 14.
In a switch on the traditional trade show, representatives from UO departments and local and state agencies will host tables to connect with businesses and vendors. The fourth Reverse Vendor Fair will take place Wednesday, Feb. 25, in Eugene.
Featuring Oregon Department of Agriculture Director Katy Coba along with high-profile Oregon Ag attorney Tim Bernasek whose recent matters include representing the Oregon wheat farmer who discovered unreleased “Roundup Ready” resistant GMO wheat growing in his fields.