|| Print ||
|Tuesday, August 30, 2011|
Here's my revised economic forecast, now going through 2013. Moderate growth in most of the forecast horizon. An acceleration to somewhat stronger growth occurs near the end of this year and the beginning of next.
The mild acceleration is due to lagged effects of monetary policy. QE2 is over, but monetary policy works with long time lags, as I noted in the best book for business managers about economics. Also remember that the economy is naturally self-equilibrating. It may take a while, but the economy will invariably fix itself, absent major policy errors. One key self-equilibrating factor is stronger purchasing thanks to weak inflation, as well as stronger hiring thanks to weak real wage rates. Note that when I say "stronger" I'm speaking of a comparison with the depths of the recession; I'm not saying that spending or hiring will be "strong." But they don't need to be "strong," just stronger than they used to be.
Bill Conerly is the author of the Businomics Blog.
|The List: 100 Best Nonprofits to Work For in Oregon|
|Run, Nick, Run|
|100 Best Nonprofits: Working for equality inside and out|
|Keep Pendleton Weird|
|One Tough Mayor|
|Liza Minnelli takes 200 mile Uber ride|
|Should gun owners carry insurance?|
|VW admits system was intentionally placed to cheat|
|The $184,000 almond caper|
|Microsoft unveils new lineup of products|
|Miller-Budweiser merger hits snags|
|Portland State campus security to carry guns|
Wage gaps and workforce shortages are threatening the quality of care and supports to Oregonians with intellectual and developmental disabilities. Who’s caring for those who care for our most vulnerable residents?
Engaging employees and customers along the way.
After first visiting as tourists, entrepreneurs relocate to Oregon and spur economic growth.
Former Chief Medical Officer for Saint Alphonsus Health Alliance brings 30 years of healthcare industry expertise and innovation.
Have you reviewed and revised your vacation, sick leave and PTO polices? Determined how to best comply with Oregon's Sick Leave law? Let us help.
Cliff Davidson Named Partner of the Firm.