|| Print ||
|Tuesday, August 30, 2011|
Here's my revised economic forecast, now going through 2013. Moderate growth in most of the forecast horizon. An acceleration to somewhat stronger growth occurs near the end of this year and the beginning of next.
The mild acceleration is due to lagged effects of monetary policy. QE2 is over, but monetary policy works with long time lags, as I noted in the best book for business managers about economics. Also remember that the economy is naturally self-equilibrating. It may take a while, but the economy will invariably fix itself, absent major policy errors. One key self-equilibrating factor is stronger purchasing thanks to weak inflation, as well as stronger hiring thanks to weak real wage rates. Note that when I say "stronger" I'm speaking of a comparison with the depths of the recession; I'm not saying that spending or hiring will be "strong." But they don't need to be "strong," just stronger than they used to be.
Bill Conerly is the author of the Businomics Blog.
|The Private 150: Bigger But Leaner|
|The Perfect Food|
|Powerlist: Staffing Firms|
|Taxis Uber Alles?|
|Google tests drone deliveries|
|Abercrombie to remove logos from most clothing|
|FBI investigates JPMorgan 'cyber-attack'|
|GoPro launches camera dog harnesses|
|Snapchat now worth $10B|
|Tomatoes may lower prostate cancer risk|
|WHO: Ban e-cigarette use indoors|
Vigilant enters a New Year with a new president.
How George Fox has become one of Oregon's largest private universities.
Forest Grove sees growth in the burgeoning food and beverage scene.
Lane Powell Shareholder William T. Patton has been appointed to the board of directors for Cascade AIDS Project, an organization that provides educational services and outreach to thousands of Oregonians living with HIV/AIDS.
Fifty-one Lane Powell lawyers were recently selected by their peers for inclusion in The Best Lawyers in America® (Best Lawyers) 2015; of those selected, 23 lawyers are from the Firm’s office in Portland, Oregon.
Barran Liebman is proud to announce that Andrew Schpak, a Partner of the firm, has been named Chair of the American Bar Association’s Young Lawyers Division for the 2014-2015 bar year.