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|Tuesday, August 30, 2011|
Here's my revised economic forecast, now going through 2013. Moderate growth in most of the forecast horizon. An acceleration to somewhat stronger growth occurs near the end of this year and the beginning of next.
The mild acceleration is due to lagged effects of monetary policy. QE2 is over, but monetary policy works with long time lags, as I noted in the best book for business managers about economics. Also remember that the economy is naturally self-equilibrating. It may take a while, but the economy will invariably fix itself, absent major policy errors. One key self-equilibrating factor is stronger purchasing thanks to weak inflation, as well as stronger hiring thanks to weak real wage rates. Note that when I say "stronger" I'm speaking of a comparison with the depths of the recession; I'm not saying that spending or hiring will be "strong." But they don't need to be "strong," just stronger than they used to be.
Bill Conerly is the author of the Businomics Blog.
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