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|Tuesday, August 09, 2011|
BY BILL CONERLY
Larry Summers recently wrote in the Washington Post:
On the current policy path, it would be surprising if growth were rapid enough to reduce unemployment even to 8.5 percent by the end of 2012.... With growth at less than 1 percent in the first half of this year, the economy is effectively at a stall and facing the prospects of shocks from a European financial crisis that is decidedly not under control, spikes in oil prices and declines in business and household confidence. The indicators suggest that the economy has at least a 1-in-3 chance of falling back into recession if nothing new is done to raise demand and spur growth.
Summers is a voice to be respected. He is a top-notch economist who has served as Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard. How do I assess his view?
However, my best forecast right now is that growth will accelerate enough to avoid a recession; not enough for us to feel good about the economy this year or next, but enough to avoid a recession. But I've been forecasting long enough to be humble about my ability to predict the next recession.
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