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|Archives - November 2006|
|Wednesday, November 01, 2006|
Slump? Or just a bump in the road?
The housing downturn has sparked recession fears. Where is the economy really headed?
By Oakley Brooks
The rumors seemed plausible enough at first. This past summer, the housing market was stalling, and in some of the state’s building hot spots — Bend, Medford, the Coast — the gossip was spreading about the industry’s dive. The grapevine said some companies were laying off workers, and others hadn’t pulled any permits for more than a month. Dennis Murphy, president of Hayden Homes in Bend, believed most of what he heard. In sub-divisions around town, he could see that crews were pouring foundations at a slower pace. Then the rumor mill said his company was laying off 60 people at his Portland-area office.
But Hayden doesn’t have a Portland office, and since the company only has 65 people total, that layoff would have amounted to a virtual shutdown. “That’s when I thought, ‘There’s something wrong here,’” says Murphy. Maybe the industry wasn’t in an all-out tailspin after all.
But what many local economists and industry leaders will say is that much of the despair about the housing market and the economy is overwrought. And while there are some important economic weaknesses in Oregon and across the country, the experts are cautiously, if surprisingly, optimistic.
Housing and timber are cooling, but it’s not a disaster.
These two sectors, which are closely related, have hit the brakes after a roaring 2005. Nationally, home prices sank for the first time in 11 years. Residential building permits dropped 21% in August compared to the same month in 2005. In Oregon, the number of existing homes sold fell 12% in the second quarter compared to the same time period in 2005, and building permits took a dive in August, with 2,194 issued versus 2,959 issued the previous August. In places such as Bend, investment dollars that drove up prices and accelerated sales cycles left town. “The investors and speculation that created the 2005 bubble are gone,” says Trish Phillips, principal broker at Bend Style real estate in Bend.
A sustained slowdown into next year in housing and timber would sting, but not cut deeply.
Like Barbee, those across the real estate, construction and timber industries are predicting a dip in growth and production in 2007. Jeremy Starr, president of the Oregon Association of Realtors, says he expects home price appreciation growth to be in the 4%-6% range across the state, with sales of homes off their 2005 high but still “strong.” The Western Wood Products Association predicts a 7% decline in production next year in Western states, after a projected 3% decline this year.
The bottom line: It’s not déjà 2002.
“You could call it a growth recession,” says Dae Baek, the acting state economist, predicting what 2007 will look like. “We’re going to be growing but not as fast as before.” Baek notes that manufacturing in the state in areas such as transportation equipment and semiconductors is still going strong and looks like it will continue into the first half of next year.
If a national recession were to hit now, the scenario would probably be different. Nationally, says Conerly, the big risk is that consumers will be scared by uncertainty surrounding their biggest investments — their homes. If the equity on people’s homes stops rising, they’ll have less to borrow new money against and be less inclined to go out and buy snowmobiles and new cars this winter. But because of our business investment-dependent economy, Oregon leans less on that consumer spending than do other parts of the country. “The biggest driver here is business investment,” Conerly says. “If a recession hits, it probably won’t be as bad for us as a place like Michigan, which is heavily dependent on consumer spending.”
Oregon has another positive engine of growth: the immigrants who continue to pour into the state. As PGE’s Nguyen points out, Oregon’s population has grown at roughly double the rate of the rest of the country. All those new people keep the service and retail sector humming with their demand for lattes, new shoes and health care. “People will continue to move in and that’s creating jobs,” says Nguyen.
Still, the clouds over the national economy aren’t good for anyone.
Even if a lot of the signs in Oregon still look good, the overall slowness of growth both here and across the nation has increased the chances that some shock to the economy could push it quickly into negative growth. Conerly puts the chances of a consumer-led recession at one in four.
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
One year after he was appointed chair of the Portland Development Commission, Tom Kelly talks about PDC's longevity, Neil Kelly's comeback and his new role as Portlandia's landlord.
Monday, July 13, 2015
BY AMY MILSHTEIN | PHOTOS BY JASON E. KAPLAN
Telemedicine, new partnerships and real estate diversification make health care more accessible in rural Oregon.
Friday, July 17, 2015
Photographer Jason Kaplan takes a look at Murray's Pharmacy in Heppner. The family owned business is run by John and Ann Murray, who were featured in our July/August cover story: 10 Innovators in Rural Health Care.
Thursday, June 11, 2015
In 2014, total revenue for camping and day use in Oregon State Parks was a little more than $17 million. That figure may even higher this year "because we've had exceptionally nice weather," Hughes says.
Thursday, June 18, 2015
While most categories of commercial real estate have performed well, one of the most robust has been apartment buildings.
Friday, July 10, 2015
BY JACOB PALMER
Most of the food Americans consume is trucked in from hundreds of miles away. Eric Wilson, co-founder and CEO of Gro-volution, wants to change that. So this past spring, the Air Force veteran and former greenhouse manager started work on an alternative farming system he claims is more efficient than conventional agriculture, and also shortens the distance between the consumer and the farm.
Thursday, July 09, 2015
The sweltering weather didn't keep the crowds away. Although the numbers were down slightly from last year, the Oregon Food Bank raised $850,636 to fight hunger. About 80,000 people attended despite temperatures in the upper 90s.
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|Elusive snow leopard captured in photos|
Court experience helps legal firm anticipate potential problems for clients and prevent expensive litigation.
When Garmin AT needed to consolidate operations for its 550 employees, it scanned its entire corporate map for possible sites.
The technology industry is always in flux. And this rapid rate of change poses challenges to companies ranging from nimble startups aiming to make their mark to established organizations fighting to remain relevant. This is particularly true in the competitive digital display market, where an Oregon company has been at the forefront of nearly every major breakthrough in the last three decades.
A look back at the shifting sands of Portland’s growth and development.
Robert S. Wiggins has joined Lane Powell as a Shareholder in the Corporate/M&A Practice Group. Wiggins is a well-known lawyer, entrepreneur, and investor with more than 30 years of experience leading and advising established and emerging companies in the Pacific Northwest. Wiggins will focus his practice on offering outside general counsel services, including general corporate and board representation, business transactions and capital events.
DEDICATION PARTY: Help the Port of The Dalles celebrate its newest shovel-ready industrial land Friday, July 31, from 1:30 to 4 p.m.