Housing market still hurting

| Print |  Email
Archives - October 2008
Wednesday, October 01, 2008

STATEWIDE When it comes to Oregon’s sluggish Metro housing markets, there is a painful difference between approaching the bottom and reaching it.

Ever since Portland home prices crossed into negative territory in January for the first time since 1987, the big question has been, where does the plunge end and the rebound begin? Falling home prices have led some optimists to declare, as an Oregonian headline did on Aug. 27, that the housing market is “bottoming out.” But step one to a rebound would be an up-tick in home sales, and that isn’t happening. Sales are down more than 30% in Portland, Eugene, Medford and Bend.

Even with a precipitous drop in new home-building, the Portland market remains bloated with more than 10 months worth of inventory and clouded by more than 6,000 uncorrected subprime mortgages and no-document “liar loans” that will eventually be re-set or “re-cast,” bringing higher monthly payments followed by new foreclosures.

The median home price fell $22,000 over the past year. How much further does it need to drop to get the market moving again?

Mark McMullen, a Lake Oswego-based senior economist for Moody’s Economy, predicts that the Portland market will bottom out at a median home price of $260,000 midway through 2009, and will remain flat for the remainder of the year before rebuilding slowly. That would represent a 14% price drop from the market’s peak of $302,000 in August 2007.

“In the coming months we’ll start to see the market firm up, and then we’ll see builders who are forward-looking applying for permits again,” predicts McMullen. “But it will be a while before the market is back in shape.”

Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economics professor who compiles the UO Index of Economic Indicators, thinks prices may have to drop even lower. “Conditions are still very weak, and prices remain, on average, too high,” he says. “Housing prices have swelled beyond what is affordable for people at most income levels in Oregon. Until that situation is corrected, I expect the housing market to remain challenged.”

BEN JACKLET



Have an opinion? E-mail This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

 

More Articles

5 highlights from the Angel Oregon Showcase

The Latest
Thursday, April 23, 2015
IMG 5069BY JACOB PALMER | DIGITAL NEWS EDITOR

The entrepreneurial spirit was alive and well at the Oregon Angel showcase, an annual event for angel investors and early stage entrepreneurs.


Read more...

European Vacation

Guest Blog
Thursday, April 23, 2015
norristhumbBY JASON NORRIS | GUEST BLOGGER

There are winners and losers with a strengthening U.S. dollar.


Read more...

Can small be large?

Linda Baker
Wednesday, April 01, 2015
040115-lindablogthumbBY LINDA BAKER

Leaders in Oregon's ag sector gathered this morning in Portland’s Coopers Hall winery/taproom to discuss the role of the region as an export gateway, impediments to exporting products and solutions to containerized shipping challenges.


Read more...

Man for All Seasons

May 2015
Monday, April 27, 2015
BY LINDA BAKER

A longtime technologist and entrepreneur, Dwayne Johnson, 53, is managing partner of PDXO/GlobeThree Ventures, a strategy and business consultancy in Portland.


Read more...

Shades of Gray

May 2015
Monday, April 27, 2015
BY KIM MOORE

Are we too quick to diagnose corruption?


Read more...

5 questions about the FLIR FX

The Latest
Wednesday, April 08, 2015
FLIR-FX-IndoorBY JACOB PALMER | DIGITAL NEWS EDITOR

The Wilsonville-based company is targeting GoPro enthusiasts with its latest release. Is spy gear poised to go mainstream?


Read more...

Footloose

April 2015
Friday, March 27, 2015
BY LINDA BAKER

Founded 12 years ago, Keen Inc. likes to push the envelope, starting with the debut of the “Newport” closed toe sandal in 2003. Since then, the company has opened a factory on Swan Island and a sleek new headquarters in the Pearl District. The brand’s newest offering, UNEEK, is a sandal made from two woven cords and not much more.


Read more...
Oregon Business magazinetitle-sponsored-links-02
SPONSORED LINKS