Sponsored by George Fox University
Home Back Issues December 2011 Holiday retail's uncertain outlook

Holiday retail's uncertain outlook

| Print |  Email
Articles - December 2011
Tuesday, November 15, 2011

By Abby Christopher

1211_HolidayRetailThe annual holiday shopping marathon is upon us, and in the face of a still-fragile economy, retailers around the country and locally are collectively holding their breaths.

In Oregon, overall consumer holiday purchases are expected to increase 2.6%, less than the national average, according to Associated Oregon Industries. On average this year, consumers in Oregon and Washington are expected to spend $640.03 compared to  $704.18 last year, according to Ohio-based BIGresearch. The National Retail Federation predicts that spending nationally will be a little higher than 2010, up 2.8% to $465 billion.

Forecasting year-end holiday sales in Oregon is more of an art than a science because Oregon doesn’t tax most retail items, so it’s more difficult for economists and analysts to gather and aggregate sales data. But the state can track monthly employment figures that can provide signs of momentum, particularly starting in the back-to-school months, August and September. Holiday hiring in Oregon is expected to hover around 11,617, 2010’s final figure, or increase slightly, according to Nick Beleiciks, a state economist with Oregon’s employment division. Harry & David in Medford is expected to make up many of these seasonal hires with roughly 9,000 enlisted to field phone orders and pack gifts.

Portland-based Made in Oregon says it expects a 5% to 8% increase in holiday sales over last year, and apparel giant Columbia Sportswear expects roughly a 3% growth in retail holiday sales.

To gauge consumer buying trends, lobbying organizations, such as the National Retail Federation, as well as independent researchers conduct or commission consumer surveys that track responses by region and state.

In October, BIGresearch conducted a nationwide consumer holiday spending survey. Overall, consumers are planning to limit themselves to buying “one nice great gift” for each person on their shopping list this year, according to Pam Goodfellow of BIGresearch. Consumers will invest a lot of time looking for the best deals and are expected to buy online and flock to discount stores and outlets, Goodfellow adds.

In Oregon and Washington, BIGresearch found that consumers plan to spend less than average this year. Consumers in these states are more budget-oriented, likely to shop in non-traditional places such as crafts and fabric stores thrift shops, online and from catalogs.

“Our baseline forecast calls for a continuation of slow growth in terms of economic activity, jobs, incomes and sales,” says Oregon state economist Josh Lehner. “We expect [holiday] sales and hiring this year to be slightly better than last year.”

 

More Articles

The role of higher education as K-12 underperforms

Contributed Blogs
Friday, May 30, 2014
ThumbChalkboardBY DEBRA RINGOLD | OB GUEST CONTRIBUTOR

Since 1970 the performance of our public education system has steadily deteriorated.


Read more...

13 West Coast seafood species now 'sustainable'

News
Tuesday, June 03, 2014

Fishing OrBiz Fishing 0357 ADOBErgbCiting the transition to catch shares management as a key to rebuilding stocks and reducing bycatch, 13 species caught by the West Coast trawl fishery today earned designation from the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) as sustainable.


Read more...

EPA Standards: A breath of fresh air for the region

News
Thursday, June 12, 2014
EPABY ANDREA DURBIN | OB GUEST BLOGGER

Last week, the Obama administration took an important and welcomed step in the effort to protect the health and well-being of all Oregonians by limiting carbon pollution from existing power plants.


Read more...

Creating a culture of compliance

Business tips
Thursday, June 19, 2014
DataBY MONICA ENAND | GUEST CONTRIBUTOR

Nine tips for building habits among employees to respond when needed.


Read more...

Understanding Oregon medical marijuana dispensary tenants

News
Friday, June 13, 2014
061314 thumb grassrentBY CLIFF HOCKLEY | OB GUEST BLOGGER

This article summarizes the key considerations a building owner must keep in mind when thinking about leasing to a medical marijuana dispensary.


Read more...

100 Best Green Companies Keynote Speech

News
Friday, May 30, 2014

green2014-069Watch the 2014 100 Best Green Companies keynote speech by Eric Friedenwald-Fishman.


Read more...

Oregon Business wins awards

News
Monday, June 30, 2014

ASBPEOregon Business magazine won two silver awards for excellence in writing in the National American Society of Business Publication Editors Western region competition.


Read more...
Oregon Business magazinetitle-sponsored-links-02
SPONSORED LINKS