Home Back Issues December 2011 The 2012 economic forecast

The 2012 economic forecast

| Print |  Email
Articles - December 2011
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Article Index
The 2012 economic forecast
Page 2
Page 3
Page 4
Page 5
1211_WhatsAhead_04Despite many of the more pessimistic factors coloring the coming year — and not considering any major unexpected events, such as the Japanese tsunami that rippled through the world economy in 2011 — the overall outlook still calls for very modest economic growth in the U.S. and in Oregon in 2012 of about 2% to 3%. The prospect of another recession has some economists, like Duy, worried. Others are a little more optimistic if still a bit wary.

“We are pretty much two years into this recovery,” Potiowsky says. “I don’t believe that we’re going to fall back into a recession, but this slow, agonizing growth is going to be with us through 2012.”

In Oregon, there are several bright areas that have not only done well in recent times, but are likely to continue to remain strong in the year ahead. The state’s exports are almost back to their pre-recession level and in 2010 were up more than 18% over the prior year. Exports of computer processors and integrated circuits from the likes of Intel continue to top the list by far, but other exports, such as aircraft parts, scrap metal and wood, have all increased as well. That growth could taper a bit in 2012, but it should still remain strong.

Manufacturing has also seen some uptick as well. According to the Oregon Employment Department, there were 167,500 manufacturing jobs in Oregon in September 2011, an increase of almost 4% over last year. At the end of October, Daimler Trucks North America announced it was hiring 350 new factory workers and 75 people for its Portland headquarters after sales of its heavy trucks increased. Similarly, Precision Castparts, a Portland manufacturer of metal parts for the aerospace and other industries, announced a surge in second quarter sales and plans for new hiring in the near future. Intel, too, has surged ahead with construction of its new research facility in Hillsboro, which will employ up to 8,000 construction workers over the next two years and create 800 to 1,000 new jobs when it opens in 2013.

“A lot of our leading traded sector companies are more bullish by the day,” says Ryan Deckert, president of the Oregon Business Association. “They are expanding, not retrenching. It’s more like the late 1990s.”

Deckert, who met with officials from Facebook in October to talk about their investment in Oregon and their operation in Prineville, says the state’s apparel cluster — comprising companies like Nike, Adidas, Columbia Sportswear, Keen and Icebreaker — shows no signs of slowing down.

“The customers are out there, and [the companies] are winning the battles with the competition everywhere,” Deckert says. “Our sports apparel companies are just really good. Customers from around the world have choices, and they like our brands.”

Leisure and hospitality jobs have been on the rise, and Potiowsky says some pent-up consumer spending might continue to help that sector in 2012. That’s good, Duy notes, but the flip side is that those jobs are relatively low-wage.

Although housing is down and will continue to be in 2012, there have been some gains in multi-family housing as the demand for rental units has increased.

“We’re seeing a little bit of life in new apartment construction,” Cortright says. “It’s small, but it’s something.”

 



 

More Articles

Reader Input Survey

News
Thursday, April 24, 2014

Click here to fill out our survey on energy and environment issues. Results will be published in our June 2014 issue.


Read more...

Barrister bands

March 2014
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
IMG 4691BY LINDA BAKER

An intellectual property attorney by day, 48-year-old Stoll Berne attorney Tim DeJong is a singer and guitarist by night.


Read more...

Q & A with Chuck Eggert

News
Thursday, March 06, 2014
03.06.14 thumb pacfoodsBY HANNAH WALLACE | OB BLOGGER

The founder of Pacific Foods talks about why his company has flown under the radar in Oregon, how saving a family-run chicken hatchery has helped his bottom line and why he thinks organic food is anything but elitist.


Read more...

Powerlist: Meeting perspectives

March 2014
Tuesday, February 25, 2014

BY BRANDON SAWYER

A conversation about the event-planning industry with sales directors from McMenamins and the Portland Art Museum. 


Read more...

Wheel man

March 2014
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
BY LINDA BAKER

Les Schwab has put a premium on customer service since 1952, when legendary namesake Les Schwab founded the company with one store in Prineville. (Schwab died in 2007.) But if the corporate principles remain essentially the same, the world around this iconic Oregon business has changed dramatically.


Read more...

How to help your staff solve their own problems

Contributed Blogs
Friday, March 21, 2014
03.21.14 thumb coxcoffeeTOM COX | OB BLOGGER

During a recent talk to HR Directors, I asked if they saw leaders trying to solve every problem, instead of delegating to and empowering staff. Every head nodded. Every single one.


Read more...

The 2014 List: The Top 33 Small Companies to Work, For in Oregon

March 2014
Thursday, February 27, 2014

100best14logoWebOur 100 Best Companies project turned 21 this year, so pop open the Champagne. Our latest survey gives us plenty to cheer.

 


Read more...
Oregon Business magazinetitle-sponsored-links-02
SPONSORED LINKS