Home Back Issues December 2011 The 2012 economic forecast

The 2012 economic forecast

| Print |  Email
Articles - December 2011
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Article Index
The 2012 economic forecast
Page 2
Page 3
Page 4
Page 5
1211_WhatsAhead_03Such factors have set the stage for a coming year that’s not likely to show marked improvements over this one. For starters, housing is expected to continue to lag, and with that comes continued hits to jobs in construction, financing, real estate and other ancillary fields.

“In 2012, I think housing is just going to limp along and maybe marginally improve,” Potiowsky says. “You’re not going to see any huge increase in building.”

That will extend some of the pain that many of Oregon’s smaller forest products communities have been feeling for years.

“As a whole, the wood products industry is still dependent on the larger economy,” says Larry Holzgang, a business development officer for Business Oregon in Josephine, Jackson, Lake, and Harney and Klamath counties. “Some of our wood products and secondary wood products companies are still struggling, and that’s not going to turn around until the entire housing and construction industry in the entire United States does.”

Unemployment, which was at 9.6% in September, had dropped from 10.7% the year before, but it still remained flat through this past summer and above the national rate of 9.1%. Potiowsky says that’s not likely to change much in the months ahead and job growth on the whole will be slow.

Economists and policymakers are also concerned about conditions in foreign markets and how they could impact Oregon. For starters, the European debt crisis, involving countries such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, threatens to spiral out of control. If it does, Oregon’s European export trade could be constricted. Duy sees an even bigger problem if the European debt crisis results in further tightening of international credit markets.

Another foreign market of concern is China. At present, China is Oregon’s biggest export destination; about $4 billion of Oregon’s $17.7 billion in exports in 2010 went to China. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy could impact Oregon, and there are concerns that China may be harboring a real estate bubble and a bigger economic slowdown than the country is letting on. In addition, political tensions over the value of Chinese currency could potentially lead to higher tariffs on Oregon exports to the country.

 



 

More Articles

The barber is back

June 2014
Thursday, May 29, 2014
BY MIKE GREEN

An old profession is new again.


Read more...

Blips and trends in the housing market

News
Thursday, June 26, 2014
062614 thumb realestateBY ERIC FRUTS | OB BLOGGER

Last year, the housing market in Oregon—and the U.S. as a whole—was blasting off. The Case-Shiller index of home prices ended the year 13% higher than at the beginning of the year. But, was last year a blip, or a trend?


Read more...

Creating a culture of compliance

Business tips
Thursday, June 19, 2014
DataBY MONICA ENAND | GUEST CONTRIBUTOR

Nine tips for building habits among employees to respond when needed.


Read more...

Charged ride

June 2014
Thursday, May 29, 2014
0614launchBY JESSICA RIDGWAY

Brad Baker, CEO and co-founder of Works Electric, is a good husband. His wife, an OHSU employee, sought a more efficient way to commute up Marquam “Pill” Hill, so she asked Baker to build a transportation solution.


Read more...

South Waterfront's revenge

News
Thursday, July 24, 2014
MoodyAveBY LINDA BAKER | OB EDITOR

Remember the naysayers?  Those who called the South Waterfront aerial tram a boondoggle?  Those who rejoiced at the massive sell off of luxury condos at the John Ross and Atwater Place?


Read more...

Risks & rewards of owning triple net investments

Contributed Blogs
Thursday, July 24, 2014
NNNinvestmentBY CLIFF HOCKLEY | OB GUEST CONTRIBUTOR

With the increasing retirements of Baby Boomers, a massive real estate shift has created a significant increase in demand for NNN properties. The result? Increased demand has triggered higher prices and lower yields.


Read more...

Driving green

June 2014
Thursday, May 29, 2014
BY KIM MOORE

Transportation accounts for the second-largest source of greenhouse gases in the U.S. (28% in 2012), and the use of renewable fuels, such as biodiesel and ethanol, is booming in light of state and national programs to make transportation fuels cleaner.


Read more...
Oregon Business magazinetitle-sponsored-links-02
SPONSORED LINKS