The 2012 economic forecast

| Print |  Email
Articles - December 2011
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
1211_WhatsAhead_03Such factors have set the stage for a coming year that’s not likely to show marked improvements over this one. For starters, housing is expected to continue to lag, and with that comes continued hits to jobs in construction, financing, real estate and other ancillary fields.

“In 2012, I think housing is just going to limp along and maybe marginally improve,” Potiowsky says. “You’re not going to see any huge increase in building.”

That will extend some of the pain that many of Oregon’s smaller forest products communities have been feeling for years.

“As a whole, the wood products industry is still dependent on the larger economy,” says Larry Holzgang, a business development officer for Business Oregon in Josephine, Jackson, Lake, and Harney and Klamath counties. “Some of our wood products and secondary wood products companies are still struggling, and that’s not going to turn around until the entire housing and construction industry in the entire United States does.”

Unemployment, which was at 9.6% in September, had dropped from 10.7% the year before, but it still remained flat through this past summer and above the national rate of 9.1%. Potiowsky says that’s not likely to change much in the months ahead and job growth on the whole will be slow.

Economists and policymakers are also concerned about conditions in foreign markets and how they could impact Oregon. For starters, the European debt crisis, involving countries such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, threatens to spiral out of control. If it does, Oregon’s European export trade could be constricted. Duy sees an even bigger problem if the European debt crisis results in further tightening of international credit markets.

Another foreign market of concern is China. At present, China is Oregon’s biggest export destination; about $4 billion of Oregon’s $17.7 billion in exports in 2010 went to China. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy could impact Oregon, and there are concerns that China may be harboring a real estate bubble and a bigger economic slowdown than the country is letting on. In addition, political tensions over the value of Chinese currency could potentially lead to higher tariffs on Oregon exports to the country.

 



 

More Articles

A legislative preview — and celebration

News
Friday, January 23, 2015
012315-speaker-thumbBY LINDA BAKER | OB EDITOR

The Northwest Environmental Business Council previews the 2015 legislative agenda as Hatch Oregon celebrates Oregon's new community crowdfunding rules.


Read more...

The Human Factor

February 2015
Monday, January 26, 2015
BY BRIAN LIBBY

Matt French opens up South Waterfront.


Read more...

Streetfight

News
Sunday, December 07, 2014
BY LINDA BAKER

On Friday, Uber switched on an app — and with one push of the button torpedoed Portland’s famed public process.


Read more...

Will Medford Ever Be Cool?

February 2015
Friday, January 23, 2015
BY DAN COOK | PHOTOS BY JASON E. KAPLAN

A real-estate developer and a Lithia Motors executive aim to revamp the city's forlorn downtown.


Read more...

Corner Office: Steve Tatone

January-Powerbook 2015
Saturday, December 13, 2014

Seven tidbits about the president and CEO of AKT Group.


Read more...

Justice for All

January-Powerbook 2015
Thursday, December 11, 2014
BY JESSICA RIDGWAY

Lawger upends the typical hourly based fee model by letting clients determine the cost.


Read more...

Crowdfunding 2.0

News
Tuesday, December 02, 2014
120214-crowdfund-thumbBY LINDA BAKER

A conversation with attorney Erich Merrill about the latest way to raise money from large groups of people.


Read more...
Oregon Business magazinetitle-sponsored-links-02
SPONSORED LINKS