OCTOBER 2008: AROUND THE STATE
Industry
glut clouds solar job forecast
STATEWIDE Solar
power remains a narrow bright spot within the gathering gloom
of Oregon’s job market. But the picture grows a little
hazier when you factor in the competition.
State leaders have poured millions of dollars into subsidizing
solar installations and photovoltaic manufacturing. Oregon is
expected to become the nation’s leading manufacturer of
solar cells by next year. SolarWorld, Solaicx, Peak Sun Silicon
and promising Intel spin-off SpectraWatt are hiring production
workers, financial analysts, engineers and technicians.
Rumors have been circulating for months that even larger solar
manufacturers are also eyeing Oregon, including Sanyo Solar USA
LLC, a pioneer in using amorphous silicon to improve
efficiency. All of which could add up to thousands of new jobs
in an economy reeling from a protracted slowdown in building,
manufacturing and timber.
But Oregon is far from unique in shooting money at the sun. New
manufacturing plants continue to pop up in China, Singapore,
India and South Korea, not to mention Arizona, Massachusetts
and New Mexico. Competition should bring prices down over time,
boosting the market, but in the shortterm solar is nowhere near
competing with wind power, much less coal, without
subsidies.
This is a problem because subsidies are expiring in the
world’s top three solar markets, Germany, Spain and the
United States. Experts at a recent conference in Valencia,
Spain, attended by Oregon officials estimated that supply will
double demand by 2010; some went so far as to declare that the
solar bubble has burst.
Oregon officials insist that is not the case. But they do find
themselves wagering heavily on something beyond their control:
an extension of federal investment tax credits for solar
projects. A recent report commissioned by the Solar Energy
Industry Association estimates that extending the tax credits
through 2016 could create 440,000 jobs nationally and 10,000 in
Oregon.
“The reality is that Oregon’s strategy is fairly
dependent on the outcome of federal solar policy,” notes
Christopher Dymond, senior energy analyst for the Oregon
Department of Energy. Still, as Dymond sees it, the question
for solar is not if but when. “Oregon’s current
slight lead gives us the edge,” he argues, because
“most other states are just waking up to the economic
benefit of manufacturing local renewable energy
systems.”
Ben Jacklet
