JULY 2008: AROUND THE STATE
Rosy forecast sees 100,000 jobs on the horizon
PORTLAND The
current economy might be sinking, sucking down jobs and incomes
with it, but at least one group is bullish on future employment
growth.
Greenlight Greater Portland, a private economic development
group, in concert with Global Insight, an international
economic analysis firm, predicts that the greater
Portland-Vancouver area will create 100,000 new jobs in the
next five years.
“We have a bullish view of the Pacific Northwest,”
says Jim Diffley, a managing director with Global Insight,
because he says knowledge workers are attracted to the area,
and businesses will follow the workforce they need. The growth
areas include:
Professional and business services: 32,000 new jobs, for a
total of 170,300. That includes adding 2,000 jobs between
2007-2008.
Financial services: 8,500 new jobs, with a slight decline seen
in the next year, but rebounding in 2009.
Information services: 2,000 new jobs, a growth rate
“second only to Seattle’s.”
Construction and natural resources: This sector is projected to
lose about 2,700 jobs through this year, but rebound in 2009
and grow by 7.2%.
Other sectors with significant jobs gains, according to
Diffley, will be trade and transportation (15,000); education
and health (10,000); government (8,000); and leisure and
hospitality (5,000).
The analysis also predicted that the gross regional product
would grow 29% to $144 billion in the next five years, which it
noted was higher than for cities such as San Jose, Seattle,
Denver and Albuquerque.
The findings, issued in a report in June, also noted that the
region added 88,000 jobs from 2002-2007 — more than in
San Francisco, San Jose and Denver combined. The sectors that
contributed to that included 17% from professional services,
17% from education and health services, 17% from construction
and natural resources, and 4% from manufacturing.
Global Insight also provides analysis for the state, which in
late May issued its most recent revenue forecast, saying
revenues were stable: In the upcoming biennium, the state
should have $17 billion in tax and lottery money to spend. At
least until the effects of skyrocketing fuel and food costs
kick in, just in time for the next
forecast.
ROBIN DOUSSARD
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