DECEMBER 2007: AROUND THE STATE
Will
Nov. 6 shape the interim session?
SALEM
The strongest influence on the Feb. 4-29 interim
legislative session is probably the primary election cycle,
which kicks off literally days after the session ends.
Elections, it could be said, do not engender political risk
taking. But the results of the Nov. 6 vote may also have a role
in how the session plays out.
The lessons of Nov. 6 were unsurprising: Oregon voters care
deeply about land-use issues and do not like taxes. However,
political analysts such as Jim Moore and Bill Lunch say that
Measure 49’s win just might give the Democrats some
traction with environmental issues — like extending
provisions of the bottle bill.
“[Measure] 49 won on the feeling of what it is to be an
Oregonian and what it is to live in the Oregon environment.
Bills like the bottle bill are clearly something people in
Oregon love,” says Moore, a professor in Pacific
University’s Department of Politics and Government.
On the flip side is Measure 50. Its decisive failure means
it’s unlikely House Democrats will be able to pass any
kind of tax during the session. While Democrats have the
majority in the House, they lack, by five votes, a large enough
majority to create a tax. Blocked by the GOP’s five-seat
advantage, Democrats will have to look to 2009 when they may be
able to pick up those seats, says Lunch, chair of Oregon State
University’s Political Science Department.
(“Ambitious,” is how he described that goal.)
Another influence on the session might come from outside of the
state, Moore says. On a national level, Republicans are forcing
Democrats to take stands on the same issues facing
Oregon’s Legislature, such as health care. Oregon
Republicans are going to be able to see how that strategy plays
out on a national level before the session begins, he says.
And for those who think the electorate in November 2008 will
have forgotten what their legislators did in the special
session, Moore brings up how Republican political groups tried
to keep voters’ memories refreshed by sending out
attack-ad mailers in Democrats’ home districts during the
last legislative session — nearly one year before the
primaries.
Bob Eisinger, chair of the political science department at
Lewis and Clark College, thinks that in the end, there’s
very little that can be extrapolated out of the Nov. 6 vote.
Which party is in the strongest position going into February?
What compromises will come out of those three weeks? Who has
the leadership that will shape whatever issues the Legislature
decides to work on?
“We’re not sure what team is in the scoring
zone,” he says of the Democrats and Republicans.
“We’re not even sure what team has the
ball.”
ABRAHAM HYATT
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